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Consumer Credit Index (CCI)
Consumer Credit Index (CCI)
Consumer Credit Index (CCI)
Consumer Credit Index (CCI)

Consumer Credit Index (CCI)

UK Repayment Pressure Index for Portfolio Monitoring, EWS and IFRS 9 Commentary

UK repayment pressure benchmark built from aggregated behavioural signals. Designed for Risk MI, Portfolio Monitoring, and Collections planning.

Consumer Credit Index (CCI) is a market-level behavioural benchmark derived from aggregated, anonymised first-party repayment indicators. It provides an external overlay that helps distinguish broad consumer repayment pressure from book-specific portfolio effects.

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Interpretation guidance

Internal MI shows outcomes in your book. CCI shows behavioural repayment pressure in the market.

CCI is intended to complement internal outcomes and bureau views as market-level context within monthly reporting and governance.

Built for: Risk MI • Portfolio Monitoring • IFRS 9 / Impairment commentary • Collections Strategy • Conduct / Consumer Duty

What we track (leading indicators)

CCI summarises directional changes in repayment behaviour, including:

  • Minimum payment pressure: proximity to minimum-payment behaviour
  • Intent vs ability gap: intent to reduce balances vs implied payoff horizon
  • Repayment strain: repayment headroom and time-to-paydown profile
  • Revolving balance strain: pressure concentration in higher balance cohorts
  • Relief-seeking behaviour: balance-transfer intent, consolidation intent, APR sensitivity

This public view is based on aggregated UK behavioural observations and is provided as a reference extract.

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Important: CCI is an external behavioural context overlay for Risk MI and Portfolio Monitoring. It is not a bureau dataset, not customer-level credit performance data, and not a market share or issuer ranking product.

Licensed access includes the full indicator series, archive, and reuse rights. Real-time API access is available under licence.

Contents

  1. Coverage & definitions
  2. Consumer Credit Index (July to October 2025)
  3. Key signals
  4. Balances & concentration
  5. Payoff intent (pressure mapping)
  6. Payment behaviour & stress gap
  7. Evidence base & official benchmarks
  8. Notes & limitations
  9. Methodology
  10. Licence & reuse
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Coverage & Definitions

Dataset Summary

This public CCI is built from a subset of our consumer credit dataset based on 100 UK consumers, collected between January and September 2025, and published as a sample of our wider behavioural benchmark for risk, product, and retention strategy.

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Topic: Consumer credit behaviour

Usage: Free to cite and reuse with attribution

Owner: TFE Group Ltd.

Updated: Yearly (Next update: September 2026)

Last updated: 24/01/2026

Coverage: January 2025 – September 2025

Responses: [Limited to 100 responses · 9 months]

Scope & Design

CCI is designed to surface behavioural pressure signals, not population totals or lender book performance.

Included

  • reported credit card balance size (in-sample)
  • reported provider association (in-sample)
  • payoff vs minimum-payment intent
  • self-declared age and income bands
  • monthly payment behaviour and stress signals

Explicitly excluded

  • any personally identifiable information (PII)
  • transaction histories
  • credit scoring
  • defaults, arrears, or verified repayment outcomes

How risk teams use it

Portfolio Risk / Credit Risk

  • calibrate whether internal movement is idiosyncratic vs macro
  • strengthen EWS monitoring and risk committee commentary
  • provide external context for tightening / easing decisions

IFRS 9 / Impairment

  • add a leading pressure input to narrative packs
  • sanity-check deterioration themes before they appear in outcomes

Collections / Recoveries

  • anticipate pre-arrears volume and capacity requirements
  • plan treatment strategy when pressure is accelerating

Conduct Risk / Consumer Duty

  • evidence of rising pressure to justify support interventions and governance actions
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Consumer Credit Index (07/25 - 10/25)

What Is The Consumer Credit Index?

The Consumer Credit Index measures repayment pressure across UK credit card users by tracking how heavy minimum monthly repayments are relative to estimated monthly income.

The index is normalised to the structural repayment burden baseline observed across the 2025 dataset.

A reading of:

  • 100 = baseline repayment burden
  • Above 100 = elevated repayment pressure
  • Below 100 = reduced repayment pressure

In plain terms: when the index rises, users are allocating a larger share of income toward minimum repayments.

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Executive Summary

Repayment pressure rose steadily through August, moving from well below baseline in late July to materially above baseline by mid-August.

Pressure remained elevated through late August and early September, suggesting a sustained period of higher minimum payment strain across the dataset.

The index spiked sharply in late September, reaching ~180, implying repayment burden around 80% above baseline, before easing back toward baseline in the most recent period.

How To Interpret The Data

This index captures directional repayment pressure, not total debt levels.

For example:

  • A reading of 180 indicates repayment burden running ~80% above the structural baseline
  • A reading of 75 indicates repayment burden running ~25% below baseline
  • A reading near 100 suggests repayment conditions broadly consistent with typical levels in the dataset

Because it is normalised, the index is best used to identify inflection points, stress build-ups, and periods of easing rather than to estimate national credit conditions.

What This Means For Lenders and Credit Providers

Elevated repayment pressure typically signals:

  • Higher repayment strain on cardholders
  • Greater sensitivity to APR changes and fee structures
  • Increased propensity to seek balance transfer offers or promotional relief
  • Potential early warning signals for delinquency risk in vulnerable segments (depending on portfolio mix)

Periods below baseline usually indicate more manageable repayment conditions, lower short-term stress, and reduced urgency to refinance.

Methodology

The index is calculated as:

Period average repayment burden ÷ baseline repayment burden × 100

Repayment burden is defined as:

Estimated minimum monthly repayment ÷ estimated monthly income

Data reflects aggregated, anonymised behavioural signals from consumer credit calculator sessions across the TFE network during 2025.

📩 Access live credit data & license the Consumer Credit Index (CCI) for commercial usage via: hello@tfe.ai

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Key signals (Jan 2025 – Sep 2025)

CCI is best read as a pressure map: who is building balances, who is trying to escape them, and who is trapped in minimum-payment behaviour.

Headline indicators (in-sample)

  • Average modelled balance (headline): £5,282
  • Highest payoff intent cohort (age): 46–55
  • Payoff intent is concentrated in mid-income bands: £25k–£44k
  • Minimum-payment selection remains materially present across working-age cohorts
  • Payment stress is measurable: many users underpay relative to payoff requirements
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How to use this These indicators show where competitive and affordability pressure sits. The sections below break down the drivers.

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Market context (2025)

Credit card behaviour in 2025 sits inside a wider consumer credit shift:

  • Consumer credit growth accelerated into late 2025.
  • Credit card borrowing growth increased to 12.1% year-on-year (BoE-reported, as covered in mainstream reporting), implying households are relying more heavily on revolving credit.

Structural constraint: persistent debt regulation

The FCA has been explicit that revolving credit risk is not just “individual budgeting” — it is a systemic behavioural pattern, particularly when customers remain in persistent debt.

Under FCA rules introduced after its credit card work, firms must intervene where customers repeatedly pay more in interest/charges than principal over extended periods.

So what?

In 2025, credit card balances behave like a pressure vessel: when cost-of-living stress rises, the behaviour shows up first in revolving balances and minimum-payment dependence.

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Balances & concentration

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3) Average credit card balance by age

Working-age balances rise with age, peak pre-retirement, then drop sharply.

This reflects two forces happening at once:

  • Structural capacity: older cohorts have higher limits and longer credit histories
  • Behavioural pressure: mid-life cohorts carry the highest revolving burdens

Exhibit 3.1 — Average balance by age band

Interpretation

CCI suggests a lifecycle concentration of revolving debt:

  • 46–55 and 56–65 cohorts carry the highest average balances
  • younger cohorts carry smaller balances, but are still present in payoff journeys
  • the sharp fall at 65+ implies either payoff completion, lower card usage, or reduced modelling activity

This matters commercially because the largest balances are not necessarily in the youngest, highest-risk cohort — they sit in the high-pressure mid-life stage, where debt is most “embedded” into household cashflow.

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4) Average credit card balance by provider (in-sample)

This chart shows which providers appear most in the dataset and what their average modelled balances look like.

Exhibit 4.1 — Average balance by provider (in-sample)

Interpretation

This is not “market share”. It’s a decision-surface signal:

  • providers appearing here are overrepresented in payoff/restructuring journeys
  • higher average balances often indicate either:
    • higher typical credit limits (more embedded lending)
    • greater carry behaviour (revolver persistence)
    • or simply a particular customer segment concentration

For institutional readers, this is useful for:

  • benchmarking balance exposure
  • identifying where payoff intent might translate into refinancing pressure
  • understanding which providers sit inside high-stress cohorts
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Payoff intent: behavioural pressure mapping

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5) Who is actively trying to pay off credit cards?

Payoff intent is not evenly distributed.

It clusters where debt becomes painful enough to escape, but not so overwhelming that customers disengage.

Exhibit 5.1 — Payoff intent by age

Interpretation

The dominant payoff-intent cohort is:

✅ 46–55 (highest share)

That’s a powerful signal:

  • this cohort is often managing mortgages, children, compressed household expenses
  • payoff intent here acts like a stress indicator, not just financial “optimisation”

This aligns with the wider consumer credit environment, where mainstream reporting and credit charities point to households relying on credit to smooth rising costs.

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6) Balance distribution by income band (capacity vs exposure)

Exhibit 5.1 — Average credit card balance by income band

Interpretation

Credit card balances rise with income, but not smoothly. In the CCI sample, the relationship looks more like a step-function than a straight line.

Lowest balances (sub-£3k):

  • £12k–£24k: £2,750
  • £45k–£54k: £2,833.33

Middle-income “carry zone” (£4k–£6k):

  • £25k–£34k: £4,227.50
  • £55k–£64k: £4,882.35
  • £35k–£44k: £5,718.75
  • £120k+: £5,000 (not the highest — important)

High balances cluster in upper-middle income bands:

  • £65k–£74k: £7,142.86
  • £105k–£114k: £7,400
  • £75k–£84k: £10,600
  • £85k–£94k: £13,100 (highest in this chart)

Key signal: the largest balances are not at the very top. The peak sits in the £75k–£94k region, which often reflects households with high spend capacity and active lifestyle credit usage (rather than ultra-high earners who may clear monthly or shift borrowing elsewhere).

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6) Payoff intent by income band

One of the strongest signals in CCI is that payoff intent is mid-income concentrated, not top-income dominated.

Exhibit 6.1 — Payoff intent by income

Interpretation

This pattern usually means:

  • lower-income groups may be constrained (less ability to accelerate repayment)
  • very high earners may be less sensitive (carry as convenience)
  • mid-income households are where credit becomes behaviourally urgent

This is the competitive and affordability battleground:

people who still have agency, but feel pressure.

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Payment behaviour & stress gap

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7) Monthly payment behaviour

Exhibit 7.1 — Average monthly payment behaviour

Interpretation

Monthly payments are not simply “what people can afford”. They are what people are willing to tolerate while carrying revolving debt.

In the CCI sample, average monthly payments vary sharply by age:

  • 18–25: £272.22 (highest)
  • 26–35: £26.00 (lowest)
  • 36–45: £106.83
  • 46–55: £133.37
  • 56–65: £159.13
  • 65+: (near-zero in this sample)

Two things stand out:

  1. The youngest cohort is paying the most.
  2. That is counter-intuitive, and suggests this group contains a sub-segment actively trying to clear balances (or a smaller sample with skew). Either way, it behaves more like repayment mode than “minimum-payment drifting”.

  3. The 26–35 cohort is effectively under-paying.
  4. At £26/month, this group sits far below every other age band, which is consistent with “carry + defer” behaviour.

This chart is best read as repayment posture, not affordability. It shows where repayments become active versus passive.

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8) The payoff gap: required vs current payment

This is one of the highest-value charts on the entire CCI page.

It shows the repayment delta between:

  • what users currently pay
  • vs

  • what they would need to pay to actually exit revolving debt materially

Exhibit 8.1 — Payment stress gap (required vs actual)

Interpretation

This chart measures the repayment shortfall: what someone would need to pay to clear faster vs what they actually pay.

In the CCI sample, the gap is material in every group except the youngest:

  • 18–25: Recommended £302.96 vs Actual £272.22 → Gap £30.74
  • 26–35: Recommended £364.12 vs Actual £26.00 → Gap £338.12
  • 36–45: Recommended £286.26 vs Actual £106.83 → Gap £179.43
  • 46–55: Recommended £427.12 vs Actual £133.37 → Gap £293.75
  • 56–65: Recommended £376.60 vs Actual £159.13 → Gap £217.47
  • 65+: Recommended £50 vs Actual (near-zero) → Gap ~£50

What this implies:

  1. 26–35 is the highest-risk repayment posture in this sample.
  2. The gap (£338/month) is extreme. This is the classic “revolve indefinitely” signature.

  3. 46–55 is under-paying despite high suggested repayments.
  4. They face the highest recommended payments (£427/month) but pay £133, leaving a £294 gap.

  5. 18–25 is the only cohort close to “on-track”.
  6. Their gap is small (£31), which supports the earlier point: this cohort is behaving like active repayment, not drift.

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9) Minimum-payment selection vs payoff selection

This chart captures the single most important behavioural split in UK revolving credit:

Escaping debt vs maintaining it.

Exhibit 9.1 — Minimum vs payoff selection (behavioural split)

Interpretation

This chart captures an important behavioural divide: who chooses to tread water versus who chooses to clear.

In the CCI sample, payoff-selection peaks hard in mid-life:

Payoff selected (%):

  • 26–35: 33.33%
  • 36–45: 29.63%
  • 46–55: 61.11% (highest by far)
  • 56–65: 24.07%

Minimum selected (%):

  • 18–25: 3.70%
  • 26–35: 22.22%
  • 36–45: 33.33% (highest minimum selection)
  • 46–55: 27.78%
  • 56–65: 12.96%

The behavioural story is clear:

  • 46–55 are the “repayment pivot” cohort.
  • They are the most likely to choose payoff behaviour (61.11%) — probably driven by tighter planning pressure (mortgage, kids, retirement horizon).

  • 36–45 are the most “minimum-normalised”.
  • This group has the highest minimum-selection rate (33.33%) and only 29.63% payoff selection, suggesting carry behaviour is culturally normal in this band.

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Evidence base and external benchmarks

CCI is not an administrative dataset. Credibility comes from benchmarking against official context.

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Benchmark A: Bank of England consumer credit environment

Credit card borrowing growth rose sharply into late 2025, reflecting higher reliance on revolving credit in household budgets.

Bank of England: interest cost + borrowing growth (context for 2025)

From the BoE Money and Credit release (Oct 2025):

  • Effective interest rate on interest-charging credit cards: 21.42%
  • Annual growth rate of credit card borrowing: 10.5%
  • Monthly net borrowing on credit cards was ~£0.7bn in that release
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Benchmark B: FCA persistent debt framework

The FCA’s persistent debt rules formalise the idea that revolving credit harm is behavioural and predictable, requiring firm intervention where customers remain trapped.

FCA: credit card penetration + revolving + persistent debt

From the FCA Financial Lives Survey (May 2024):

  • 65% (35.3m) held a credit card or held one in the last 12 months
  • 59% (31.8m) used a credit card in the last 12 months
  • 19% (10.1m) revolved a balance (carried debt)
  • 5% (2.8m) were in persistent credit card debt (paid more in interest/fees than principal repaid)

How to interpret divergence

CCI will not match lender balance sheet totals or BoE aggregates.

That’s expected.

  • official data measures population stock + flow
  • CCI measures decision-surface behaviour
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Notes and limitations

  • Behavioural measures reflect modelling intent, not verified lender outcomes
  • Dataset is not population-weighted
  • Provider distribution is in-sample, not market share
  • Signals are directional and best used for pressure mapping
  • This page is not financial advice
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Methodology

Collection

  • Collected via credit card payoff and repayment journeys across TFE ecosystem tools
  • Aggregated and anonymised for publication

Normalisation

  • Providers and bands are mapped into controlled vocabularies
  • Outliers are reviewed to preserve trend continuity

Update cadence

  • Published yearly (2025 edition)
  • Licensed edition supports deeper segmentation and refresh cycles
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Licensing and reuse

CCI is published as a public behavioural benchmark describing credit card payoff pressure and repayment behaviours.

A licensed edition is available for organisations requiring deeper segmentation, cohort splits, and reuse rights.

Licensed edition includes

Every month you receive a pack built for Risk MI and governance:

  • MI Slide (PPT): 1-page “UK Credit EWS” insert for Portfolio / Risk Committee packs
  • Monthly PDF (10–15 pages): trend, drivers, pressure cohorts, commentary
  • Indicator time series (CSV): component series for internal dashboards
  • Methodology + definitions: indicator logic, limitations, update window

Optional:

  • API feed for automated ingestion into internal MI dashboards

Use cases

  • Consumer credit risk teams (early warning signals)
  • Credit product strategy (refinancing / consolidation pressure)
  • Debt management programmes (behavioural triage)
  • Competitive benchmarking (provider decision-surface signals)

📩 To request the licensed edition: hello@tfe.ai

Include organisation name + intended use (internal reference vs client distribution vs commercial reuse)

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Produced by: TFE Group

CCI is developed and maintained by TFE Group, a behavioural intelligence provider focused on aggregated consumer insight for financial institutions.

Responsible lead: James Warwick

Institutional enquiries: hello@tfe.ai

Credit Card Data January - September